In 2011, experts forecast that the property market would entirely depend on the government’s policies applied to curb price increases and seek capital sources for the market. According to Prof Dr Dang Hung Vo, there would be two main scenarios for property market in 2011.
Vietnamese fruits cannot compete yet with those from Thailand, so I chose to freeze them to avoid a head-on confrontation with the Thai products and to create a niche market for my own. Peeled, frozen, and packaged fruits will surely catch eyes and easily meet safety benchmarks
According to statistics, the country requires around 800,000 tons of fertilizer for the winter-spring crop. Currently companies have over 750,000 tons of stock ready to meet the increasing demand without inflating the price.
Vietnam needs to take some measures to stabilize the monetary market and exchange rates such as: removing the cap of loan to deposit ratio (LDR) as stipulated in Circular 19 and using the compulsory reserves tool instead; keeping compulsory reserves for the dollar higher than the dong; cutting dollar deposit interest rates while boosting up dollar lending to encourage people to borrow the dong rather than dollars; and strive to tackle inflation.
The Vietnam Garment and Textile Association (Vitas) has reported that Vietnam’s garments and textiles currently account for 2.5 percent of the world’s total market share. The sector is set to achieve more than US$13 billion in turnover in 2011 due to a growing global market share.
There are still challenges for mollusc exporters such as technical barriers and strict requirements for food safety and hygiene. In addition to the application of the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP), a process control system that identifies where hazards might occur in the food production and ISO22000, a standard dealing with food safety, Vietnamese products exported to the EU market have to meet the technical requirements developed by the British Retail Consortium.
Colliers International Vietnam, a property services provider, has released a quarterly report saying that with some 214,000 square meters of Grade A office space, over 134,000 square meters of it occupied, and with another 80,000 square meters available for leasing, the Grade A market is experiencing competition not from existing Grade A stock but from new Grade B buildings.
Figures from the Ministry of Industry and Trade show that the country produced 50.85 million tonnes of cement last year, equalling 101 per cent of the year’s target. However, domestic demand last year was about 48.5 million tonnes, resulting in an excess of about 2 million tonnes. As at least seven more cement plants will be put into operation this year, the cement surplus is expected to be higher this year, between 5 to 10 million tonnes.
Both of the companies intend to initially focus on the common high priority areas such as listing Vietnamese companies abroad, asset management, investment banking and facilitating access for international investors to participate in the Vietnamese stock market and for Vietnamese investors that would wish to buy foreign stocks.
Vietnam has come to the final stage of opening the market under the WTO commitments, offering better conditions for foreign investors. This means that more and more enterprises will come to set up production and business bases in Vietnam. As the competition is getting stiffer, existing investment funds are under the pressure of raising funds before new investment funds appear.
Now people talk more about the “Sony effect”. More and more foreign investors have been importing goods and selling them on the domestic market. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in 2010, 525 foreign invested projects were put on the table of management agencies. Of these projects, the ministry estimates that 235 projects can meet the legal requirements, including 175 projects which applied for trading goods as an additional business activity, and 60 projects which applied for investment licenses for the first time.
Merger and acquisition (M&A) trend would also create new dynamics to the market.
The government has set a year-on-year CPI increase target of 7 per cent for 2011. In its latest economic report on Vietnam, Credit Suisse Group forecasted Vietnam’s inflation would be 10 per cent in 2011.
Food and food-related products have witnessed a strong surge at 2.47 per cent, directly impacting the CPI this month as these commodities account for 40 per cent of the total CPI market basket. Food and beverage prices, especially of pork, cooking oil, milk and vegetables and fruit, have increased sharply and are likely to continue to rise into February. The price of pork jumped strongly by 4.98 per cent against December to VND90,000 (US$4.3). The prices of cooking oil, confectionery products and milk increased by 7.4 per cent, 3.2 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively.
“Vietnam has a low level of consumer credit which means a monetary policy based on high interest rates does not reduce the consumer price index (CPI). Instead it will push up production costs and thus market prices. This in turn will lead to a rise in the CPI, not a reduction,” said economist Dr. Bui Kien Thanh.
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