Some experts believe that stocks would be the safe investment channel for 2011, according to Nguoi lao dong.
The year 2010 is over having gone through many ups and downs in Vietnam and in the world. The gold price reached new records and the dong/dollar exchange rate fluctuated heavily. Meanwhile, the real estate market was quiet. Experts believe that the global economy will be more stable in 2011, thus allowing investors to make safer investments .
Gold and dollars? Profit will be associated with risks
Dr. Dinh The Hien, Director of the Informatics and Applied Economics Research Institute, says that international financial institutions believe that the gold price will climb to the new peaks in 2011. UBS believes that the gold price in 2011 will hover around $1550 per ounce. Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist of Herston Economics, thinks that the gold price may reach $2000 per ounce by the end of the year.
However, both the gold price increases and decreases could happen. The price may march towards the $1600 per ounce level by the first quarter of 2011, but may also step back to the $1200 per ounce level, if the world economy shows strong recovery and the dollar regains in its value.
Regarding the dollar price, Dr. Hien says that this would much depends on Vietnam’s macro economy. In 2011, the Government of Vietnam will take drastic measures to stabilize the foreign currency market. Especially, it is striving to narrow the gap between the dollar prices in the black market and the official market and ease the dollarization. Therefore, Hien has every reason to believe that the exchange rate will be stable, at least in the first months of the year.
Nguyen Hoang Hai, Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Financial Investors (VAFI), also thinks that there will not be another “monetary shock” in 2011 like the in 2010.
Real estate market: the opportunities to buy wholesale
Experts believe that the real estate market in 2011 would keep quiet and gloomy.
The latest report released by Savills Vietnam, a real estate service provider, shows that in the fourth quarter of 2010, the total number of leased offices in HCM City dropped by 20 percent over the previous quarter and by 60 percent over the same period last year, though the rental decreased by 2 percent. Savills believes in 2011that the office leasing market will not be attractive any more.
The two market segments which are believed to be most bustling in 2011 are residential estates, especially mini apartment blocs, and high grade resorts. apartments will be sold to those with real demand for accommodation, while high grade resorts will be reserved for high income earners, who are always ready to spend money.
Real estate investment always requires big capital. But the current policies do not create good conditions for individual investors who are short of capital. Director of a real estate development company says that institutional investors and clients should buy products wholesale and then provide products to their staff as a kind of welfare. He also says that it is now the right time to form investment funds, especially the real estate trust fund.
Investors should pour money to stocks?
Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Deputy Director of the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM), thinks that in 2011, stocks will be an attractive investment channel, especially if investors plan to make long term one-year investment. The VN Index is now at 480 points, and it is not likely to drop to 420 points. From now to the second quarter of 2011, investors have the opportunities to earn the profit of 20 percent from stocks. Meanwhile, it will be very difficult to earn such a profit from gold or dollars deposit / trading?.
Hoang from VAFI also thinks that simply by buying stocks for dividends, would get the profit of at least 15 percent. the risks are low because the stocks are now too cheap. The prices of many stocks are equal or even lower than the book value.
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